Antman predicts below normal monsoon

NAGPUR: While the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted a near-normal monsoon (96%) and private forecaster Skymet is saying it will be below normal to the tune of 93% (with an error of +/-5%) this year, the Koradi antman has predicted a below normal rainfall (at just 600-700mm instead of normal of 900 to 1000mm).
According to the antman, who is not willing to share his name due to personal reasons, monsoon could reach the city and Vidarbha by June 22-24 and during the season it could be erratic like last year.Majority of his past predictions in last eight years have come true. He predicts the monsoon based on the nest-making activities of weaver ants on trees.
Generally, ants start making their homes about a month ahead of the onset of the monsoon. In view of this, pre-monsoon showers could start in the city by June 15 this year as they begin two-and-a-half to three weeks before the monsoon hits the city. But the actual monsoon is expected to reach Nagpur by June 24. The antman said that this year the monsoon could follow last year’s pattern or lesser than that as maximum percentage of nests are at lower level of every tree and only 10% nests are in the middle or top of the tree trunk.
“Monsoon this year could be erratic as nests are very discrete and more on one side. A large number of samosa shaped nests are in the lower end of the tree and nests on the middle and top end are round in shape which indicate erratic and less rainfall. Only if the nests are of oblong shape, the rainfall is expected to be good,’’ said the antman, who is a chemist and environmentalist working in a private firm.
In 2011, the antman’s prediction about normal monsoon had proved right. In 2013, his prediction of monsoon arrival in the third week of June had also turned right as the rains had reached city on June 13. In 2014, he had said monsoon will start with vigour and will later become erratic. Here, however, the first part was proved wrong, though his claim of erratic spread proved right. In 2015 also, prediction of patchy and erratic monsoon came true. In 2017, the patchy and delayed monsoon prediction proved correct.
Till last year, the antman made predictions based on the weaver ant activities on trees near Koradi thermal power plant, but this year since those trees have been cut, he has made predications based on mango trees on government polytechnic campus.